2021 UK and Global economic outlook

07-Jan-2021

2021 UK & Global economic outlook: lowest number of births in the UK since records began predicted; first decline in London's population this century: global & UK turning point in the fight against climate change.

- We expect the health, social and economic effects of the pandemic to result in a ‘baby bust’, where the postponement of pregnancies translates into a dramatic decline in birth rates in 2021;
- A shift away from city-living is likely to both increase the number of people moving out of the capital, and decrease the number of people moving in;
- By the end of 2021, the majority of electricity generated in the UK could be from renewable sources, and one in eight cars newly registered in Great Britain are likely to be electric or hybrid;
- Global green bond issuance is expected to top $500billion for the first time;
- The global economy in aggregate should revert to its pre-crisis level of output by the end of 2021 and expand by around 5% in market exchange rates. This would be the fastest rate recorded in the 21st century, however, the recovery will be uneven across sectors, countries and income levels and could be more bumpy than initially anticipated as the virus mutates and evolves.

The UK could see a “baby bust” in 2021 and the annual birth rate dipping to the lowest level since records began, according to PwC’s annual economic predictions report.

The report finds that the unprecedented nature and size of the economic shock could negatively impact family planning. Back in April, an ONS survey revealed that 42% of people thought their household finances would get worse in the coming 12 months and, in a PwC survey from December, 19% of respondents stated that they expect to lose their job in the next year. Nine months later and with uncertainties continuing, this is expected to translate into fewer births in 2021.

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