http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/2007/11/prompts_v_causes.html[quote] Evan DavisBeing interested in why the world has apparently been taken by surprise at a turn of events that were to some extent inevitable, I asked the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund today, Simon Johnson, what he thought. Of course he rightly made the point that no-one predicted the intensity of the credit crunch. But he also made the point that there are lots of pieces of the crisis that you could have predicted individually, like the falling dollar, or falling house prices, or high oil prices, but not the confluence of different things that are going on simultaneously[/quote]